Rule-of-thumb estimate. A proper Manual J load calculation by an HVAC contractor gives the exact size. An oversized furnace wastes energy.
How to use this calculator
Enter the area of the home you want to heat, choose your climate, the insulation level and the efficiency (AFUE) of the furnace. Press Calculate to see the heating load and the furnace size to look for.
The formula
Heating needed = area × BTU per sq ft for your climate × insulation factor
Furnace input = heating needed ÷ AFUE
Example: A 2,000 sq ft home in a moderate climate with average insulation needs about 90,000 BTU/hr of heat. A 95% efficient furnace needs an input of about 94,737 BTU/hr, so look for a 100,000 BTU/hr furnace.
Understanding your furnace size estimate
This calculator gives two numbers: the heat your home needs and the furnace input rating that delivers it. Furnaces are labeled by input BTU, but some of that energy goes up the vent. The efficiency rating (AFUE) tells you how much of the input becomes useful heat.
Output vs. input
The “heating needed” figure is the heat your home loses on a cold day. The “furnace input” figure is that number divided by efficiency. For example, a 1,500 sq ft home in a cold climate with average insulation needs about 82,500 BTU/hr. With a 95% AFUE furnace, the input needed is about 86,842 BTU/hr. With an 80% furnace, it rises to about 103,125 BTU/hr. The home needs the same heat either way, but the less efficient furnace burns more fuel to deliver it.
Main factors that change the size
- Climate: Colder winters raise the BTU needed per square foot.
- Insulation and air sealing: A tight, well-insulated home can need a much smaller furnace.
- Windows: Large areas of older single-pane glass lose a lot of heat.
- Ceiling height and layout: Tall ceilings and open two-story spaces add volume to heat.
- Ductwork: Leaky ducts in an unheated attic or crawl space waste heat before it reaches the rooms.
Tips and common mistakes
- Do not simply copy the size of your old furnace. Many older homes have oversized units, and insulation or window upgrades may have lowered the load.
- Do not oversize “to be safe.” An oversized furnace short-cycles, which can mean uneven temperatures and more wear.
- Count only the heated area. Leave out unheated garages and attics.
- Make sure the furnace blower can move enough air for any central air conditioner sharing the ducts.
Buying and planning advice
Use this estimate as a starting point to judge contractor quotes. Ask each contractor to do a Manual J load calculation, which accounts for your windows, insulation, air leakage and local weather. High-efficiency furnaces cost more up front but use less fuel. Check whether your utility offers rebates. Gas lines, venting and electrical work must meet local building codes, so have a licensed HVAC contractor size and install the furnace. Install carbon monoxide detectors in any home with fuel-burning appliances.

